Volvo Ocean Race, a cavallo dell’Equatore
Equipo TelefonicaEricsson RacingGreen Dragon RacingOceanoPuma Ocean RacingTeam Delta LloydTeam RussiaVelaVolvo Ocean Race 27 Novembre 2008 Zerogradinord 0
[singlepic=911,250,170,,left]Volvo Ocean Race – Oceano Indiano – Scappato con una mossa degna del miglior Houdini dalle calme equatoriali, Ericsson 4 è in rotta verso Cochin e vanta un margine piuttosto rassicurante sugli avversari, usciti solo da poche ore dai famigerati Doldrums.
Mentre la flotta si dirige verso l’Equatore, che passerà alla spicciolata nel corso della giornat odierna, gli inseguitori di Torben Grael paiono più interessati a quanto accade attorno a loro, piuttosto che a tentare di tenere testa alla fuga dello scafo svedese. E come dargli torto?
Anders Lewander, skipper di Ericsson 3, è riuscito a difendere la seconda piazza, ma tra i refoli evanescenti della zona sub equatoriale ha dovuto fare a meno del radar e non è riuscito ad agganciare nessun groppo, perdendo parecchio terreno nei confronti di un arrembante Green Dragon. Lontano solo tre miglia dal team scandinavo, Ian Walker guarda alle previsioni con mal celato disappunto. Lo skipper del VOR 70 irlandese sa infatti che i venti andranno ben presto a calare e ruoteranno verso prua, obbligando a percorrere le ultime trecento miglia di bolina sotto Code Zero. Eventualità particolarmente temuta dall’equipaggo di Green Dragon, sempre privo del boma. Bolina temuta anche da Telefonica Blue che, seppur in quarta posizione a dieci miglia da Ericsson 3, senza un daggerboard, sa di avere carte pessime da giocare quando il vento oscilla tra la prua e il traverso.
Giornata di grazia per Team Delta Lloyd. Interpretando al meglio il difficile quadro delle calme equatoriali, gli uomini di Roberto Bermudez hanno scalato diverse posizioni e sono in piena lotta per la quarta piazza. Guardando al futuro, in caso di bolina finale, si potrebbe addirittura pronosticare il sorpasso del vecchio ABN Amro One ai danni dei già citati Green Dragon e Telefonica Blue. Eventualità che proietterebbe gli olandesi al terzo posto, a patto che resistano al ritorno di Puma, a conti fatti il VOR 70 che nei Doldrums se l’è cavata peggio.
Leg 2, day 13, 10.00 GMT, rankings
1 – Ericsson 4 SWE (Torben Grael/BRA) DTF 666 nm
2 – Ericsson 3 SWE (Anders Lewander/SWE) +54 nm
3 – Green Dragon IRL/CHN (Ian Walker/GBR) +57 nm
4 – Telefónica Blue ESP (Bouwe Bekking/NED) +64 nm
5 – Team Delta Lloyd IRL (Roberto Bermudez/ESP) +67 nm
6 – Puma Racing Team USA (Ken Read/USA) +75 nm
7 – Telefónica Black ESP (Fernando Echávarri/ESP) +142 nm
8 – Team Russia RUS (Andreas Hanakamp/AUT) +143 nm
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Video courtesy Volvo Ocean Race.
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Video courtesy Volvo Ocean Race.
GET OFF MY CLOUD
[singlepic=912,250,170,,left][Volvo Ocean Race Press Release] Torben Grael and Ericsson 4 pulled off a Harry Houdini yesterday morning, escaping into a rain cloud and gaining 30 miles on the chasing pack. Grael has clearly done his 10,000 hours of practice – get off of my cloud.
Behind them, Ericsson 3, Puma and Green Dragon all struggled as Delta Lloyd scrambled out of the pocket and threw their own Hail Mary – up to fourth, and very happy this morning.
At 10.00 Zulu, everyone looked to have cleared the worst of the Doldrums (I’m touching wood as I type that), and were sailing north in a sporadically freshening north-westerly. Ericsson 4 had rebuilt her lead from the scoring gate, and some, with Ericsson 3 trailing in her wake. Behind her, but slightly further to the west were Green Dragon, with Delta Lloyd and Puma on her tail.
Our outliers were still there – 60 miles to the west, Telefonica Blue led her sistership, Telefonica Black, on a parallel course to the main pack. But all the promise of Team Russia’s assault on the eastern front had collapsed. She was forced west overnight – I think we can assume that they got nailed by a cloud, but as they aren’t sending back anything more than the basic data, I can’t tell you any more. The result is that all the leverage they had to the east has gone – closed out by the leaders and the main pack. Nothing left for them but to struggle through, follow everyone north, and wait for the next restart – their grim fate summarized by today’s graph of Distance to Leader (DTL in the Data Centre) – as well as a look at the chaotic True Wind Speed (TWS) over the past 24 hours.
I suspect that Wouter Verbraak will be taking it hard – oh my life… Fortunately, as we saw in yesterday’s clip, he got the key decision makers on board to buy into the strategy before they embarked on it – always wise, in any walk of life …
Squeezing through a gap
So, what was I saying yesterday about the reality of the Doldrums – one boat sitting becalmed while another sails away in a cloud? Shortly after that, this email came through from Aksel Magdahl, navigator onboard Ericsson 3, describing the critical moment in Ericsson 4’s escape to (probable) victory.
But you wouldn’t have thought so, to hear Ericsson 4 navigator, Jules Salter, yesterday afternoon, as he explained their break away in the cloud to Guy Swindells. By then, they too were stationary – awaiting the decision on their fate from the wind gods. And this time it was the thumbs up. Salter felt then that, in hindsight, they should have gone further east – and they’ve made up for it since. Squeezing through a gap in the Doldrums that closed behind them.
But Anders Lewander and Ericsson 3 didn’t let themselves get rattled by the vanishing act that their sistership had pulled, and despite missing their radar, have held second – just. They can’t relax, with around 20 miles between them and sixth placed Puma. And for once, it’s Ken Read and his team that have taken a hammering, as Read reported this morning.
The big question now is to what extent the squeeze box – having bunched the fleet up in the light wind – is going to drag them apart again as the leaders sail back into better breeze first. The latest analysis from Race Forecaster, Jennifer Lilly, was predicting that after a period of reasonable westerly breeze (and heavy rain in the Race Village, oh joy), the brakes will come back on – probably tomorrow afternoon for Ericsson 4, I’d say. So it looks like there’s at least one more cycle of the squeeze box between here and the finish line.
No shortage of passing lanes between here and the finish
That will keep the pressure on the group in the main pack as a single cloud could make the difference between second and sixth. While the Predicted Route image this morning shows the rather random prospects of the boats on the eastern and western flanks. Compare and contrast that image to yesterday’s. Same weather forecasting model, one day later – and Team Russia go from battling for the podium to struggling to avoid the wooden spoon.
Meanwhile, Telefonica Blue draw the biggest Get Out of Jail for Free Card we’ve seen so far – as navigator, Simon Fisher was hoping yesterday. Or have they? Who’s to say that by tomorrow it won’t all have changed again? The leverage is still there, and until Telefonica Blue are back with the pack the risk of both gains and losses remains high. As the wise old sage, Andrew Cape, navigator aboard Puma, said yesterday – you’ve just got to get stuck in and sail the boat … not that it’s done him much good, as Ian Walker related in this email this morning – just a 100 metres between happiness and despair…
Did I mention that there was some luck involved in this sport? And there’s going to be no shortage of passing lanes between here and the finish. According to the weather routing, Ericsson 4 are going to have to sail the final 300 miles in less than five knots of breeze (unfurl that Code Zero) – much of it upwind. You can play the weather forward for the next 36 hours in the Race Viewer – click on the ‘three wind arrows’ icon, and then use the buttons at the bottom of the chart to change the time.
The outlook is a little different for those behind them, but any upwind sailing is not good for the prospects of Green Dragon (without their boom) or Telefonica Blue (without their daggerboard). Chuck that into a constantly shifting weather pattern and you have one very volatile mix for the run in…
Leg 2, day 13, 10.00 GMT, rankings
1 – Ericsson 4 SWE (Torben Grael/BRA) DTF 666 nm
2 – Ericsson 3 SWE (Anders Lewander/SWE) +54 nm
3 – Green Dragon IRL/CHN (Ian Walker/GBR) +57 nm
4 – Telefónica Blue ESP (Bouwe Bekking/NED) +64 nm
5 – Team Delta Lloyd IRL (Roberto Bermudez/ESP) +67 nm
6 – Puma Racing Team USA (Ken Read/USA) +75 nm
7 – Telefónica Black ESP (Fernando Echávarri/ESP) +142 nm
8 – Team Russia RUS (Andreas Hanakamp/AUT) +143 nm
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